CKCM was one of my friends (btuff) top picks for this coming year. This guy really knows how to find undervalued companies and has found boom, hurc, ftk, lmia, amongst others, long before they truly broke out. I have been watching CKCM for a break of the upper resistance line for a few months now and have traded it within the larger triangle. I believe CKCM broke the descending upper trendline and only needs to break the parallel (52week high) resistance for a very nice breakout trade. The stock is already up on the year, but this could only be the beginning.

CKCM is a very highly rated stock on IBD. Once a stock starts moving, IBD tends to start running articles profiling it and mentioning it in their paper. They are ranked number 1 in their sector and the sector has been a good performer.

Here is what's below the hood on the IBD rankings.

Here is something I find very intriguing. The short position is HUGE on CKCM. It is larger then BOOM, TASR, or even TZOO in a days to cover ratio. If I was short, I'd be nervous as hell with CKCM trading near a 4 year high and with earnings coming up on 2/16. CKCM has released some positive news lately (new contracts) and the stock has been reacting favorably.

Here is the daily chart. The upper sloping trendline from a larger triangle has been broken. There is still resistance to 29.20 and CKCM is still in the process of testing the trendline as support. The 20SMA just crossed over the slower 50SMA.
Here is the daily from a fibonacci fan perspective. While CKCM is by no means in the clear, they are attempting to break the horizontal trendline and trade near the 50% fan line.
The weekly clearly shows a break of the trendline resistance. RSI has been sloping down as it consolidates. I wouldn't count this as the typical negative divergence as CKCM is really trading sideways and not up on the weekly. RSI is near breaking the trendline resistance as well.

Now for my disclaimers. I really don't like they way CKCM trades. It is very volatile and for those trying to daytrade it, there is a tendency to get chopped out. I think there is a realistic chance that CKCM could fail, but it looks to me like most charts are showing strength, and with earnings coming soon, and the huge short position, CKCM has more reward then risk at this point. I have already taken a position in CKCM and will add if it breaks my resistance lines. Please do your own DD. I will be adding some fundamental analysis from btuff in the coming day or two. Also, I will post my usual charts later tonight.
Good Luck,

DT

We are not out of the woods yet, but with BRCM, MRVL, and MSFT up after hours it looks like tech will lead the way again tomorrow.

Nasdaq still needs to clear the trendline, but the technical picture doesn't lool too bad. Look at the convergence of the trendline and the fib retrace.
With an eye on tech's, it looks like FFIV will attempt a new 52 week high tomorrow.
CTXS pulled back from the gap up high and tried to fill the gap on the downside. Stopped short and looks like it will start a run towards the high.
Congrats to those who have traded in to SLW with me. I have posted the chart on several occasions. This looks very bullish for silver stocks.
SBUX is looking like it will break it's long time consolidation. I am showing two charts below showing why I think it will break. First is a fib fan of the daily chart. Look at how SBUX is starting it's move off the 50% line.
This chart shows a nice orderly consolidation and RSI broke the downtrend. MACD looks ready to cross and SBUX held support at 30.
CKCM tested support today and finished above it. Tomorrow should be the follow through day.
Nice break of the triangle for AIZ. I keep seeing AIZ on the gorillatrades ad's on IBD and they have good IBD ratings.

For daytraders: I think BRCM and MRVL will provide excellent daytrading opportunities tomorrow.

Good Luck,

DT

Still dealing with a family emergency so I am just posting a few quick charts.

TALX beat earnings estimate afterhours.
I've been posting CME pre breakout charts the past week or so. Watch for the next move up.
CKCM broke long time resistance and needs to follow through.
SLW hade huge volume and cleared resistance.

Good Luck,

DT

Due to an emergency there will not be a post tonight.

DT

For those looking to me for a SUF update, unless it reverses strongly at the open, I believe SUF will close below my trendlines and therefore be broken. I will look to exit my position and then track it. Good Luck,

DT

I am more then a little wary of stocks that are breaking out in the current market environment. At this point I am looking for stocks that can possibly buck the general trend if the market does deteriorate further. The reason I am still looking long is that we are still technically in a rally and shorting (for a swing) at this point would result in being chopped out I believe. Here are a few that may be able to sustain the breakouts.

XTO held above the support line and is in a good sector. Weekly chart looks good too.
CRI broke out in a big way today.
Weekly looks great.
PETS reported earnings today and took off. The reason I think they can follow through is that if PETS closes the week over 15 they should make the IBD 100 list again. They debuted pretty high on the list last time and looks like they will close over 15.
Weekly looks OK.
I've been posting a lot on MMUS but today was another strong day for them with a new closing high. Volume is building so 52 week high may may be next.
Congrats to those who traded these picks.

DT

Well SUF took a pretty nasty haircut today. I didn't expect it to fall this hard on a negative article of all things. This reacted like it was being investigated by the SEC or like a biotech whose drug had killed someone. My normal strategy when a stock gaps down this severely is to wait 5 minutes and see if it will reverse. I treated SUF differently for a couple reasons. First, I had locked in enough profits in SUF earlier that my core position is comprised purely of profits. Second, I thought this reaction was a little overblown and my weekly chart was still holding up. I ended up selling half at 13.55 when it made a new 30 minute low. I bought them back and then some just under 10 as I expected 10 to hold based on my daily and weekly chart. It almost retraced a full 61.8% which also coincides with two trendlines I have drawn. It held all the trendlines and is near 10 week average as well. I sold some traders at $12.30 when the mid day rally finally fell apart. All in all, I can't be disappointed as I was able to recoup some losses and actually lowered my average cost on my existing shares, but it does suck to have a stock move 47% down against you. I will probably exit if it violates my trendlines though. Hopefully some of you didn't get hurt too bad with this move.

DT

This is my third post of the day so be sure to read the previous posts.

I found a lot of intersting natural gas plays this weekend and I've been thinking that Natural gas has been oversold for some time. Although it doesn't look like we will have a cold spell anytime soon, the natural gas futures chart looks like it has bottomed.

Here is a six month chart of the natural gas contract. It hasn't been this oversold in quite some time.
NGAS may move if it breaks this large triangle.
CHK always runs with natural gas prices and insiders can't get enough shares.
EOG broke the bearish wedge, so let's see if it can follow through.
DVN broke a cup and handle type base although it still has a little overhead resistance.
IVAN has retraced 38.2% and could explode here.
XTO may be the prettiest chart this week. They broke a pretty nice base and MACD just crossed over.
I may be early on this, but this many charts in the same sector looking good at the same time looks very promising to me.
Good Luck,

DT

Here are some interesting charts to look at. Funny enough but I am seeing a lot more long charts then short. Some of these could go either way as they are charts where stocks have fallen to support.

CRI Looks ready to break this contracting triangle base.
CWTR could go either way but 19's has proven to be support.
GFIG looks interesting here as bulls and bears are at a stalemate.
HANS has pulled back to the gap up. Let's see which way it continues.
JCOM looks very good here, especially if market attempts a rally.
PTC should have good support here.
RELV debuted on IBD 100 this weekend.
QDEL may be ready to turn back up here.

I am not posting my short targets as I think we are not ready for swings on the short side. I will wait for an attempted rally and if it fails use it as a shorting opportunity.

Good Luck,

DT

Initial Disclaimer: I have been in SUF from near 10 and continue to hold a position.

I hear there is a negative article on SUF in Barons this weekend, and I thought now would be a good time to explain why I like SUF and why I try to not be distracted by noise from the media and public boards. First, I trade on mostly technical patterns and my fundamental analysis goes as deep as checking IBD ratings on a company. I believe fundamentals can be decieving and I am not an investor. Also, it is almost impossible to really know a companies true fundamental story without being an insider. Because I am not a fundamental investor, the most important thing to me is the imbalance between supply and demand. Charts are the only thing in the markets that don't lie. Articles, reports, press releases, post's on a board, .... they all have prejudices by the originator and should be taken as opinion. Charts are facts. I'm not putting down fundamental investors as that is a perfectly acceptable strategy. The difference is that an investor must be willing to hold a long time for his fundamental analysis to weather the normal short term imbalances of supply and demand. I also have different types of technical trades depending on the time frame I am looking at. I trade mostly very short term, but I have a few stocks that I take a big stake in early, and then cash out some profits while I wait for the really huge move to develop. I then add on pullbacks. I believe that stocks that make the huge longterm moves have one thing in common; VOLUME. They all suddenly had an influx of volume that PRECEDED the truly large move. Someone knows something and despite any negative press or bashing, the charts can't hide the fact that someone who knows something is accumulating shares. I am posting a few charts below to show what I am talking about. I am not saying SUF will become as big a winner as these stocks posted below. The truth is, I have no idea if SUF will crash and burn or not. But I do know that SUF is showing a similar pattern to these stocks and therefore bears watching. The other thing that needs to be realized, is that all of these had severe pullbacks on the road to their current highs. They don't look so bad looking at the weekly charts but if you look closely there are some pretty severe drops for someone holding more shares then they should be. Another thing that most big winners have in common is an element of doubt and fear in the stock which brings in a large short position betting against it. They provide more fuel to the breakouts when they occur.

Volume patterns can more easily be seen in weekly charts IMO. The big picture can more clearly be seen and the distinction between up and down volume is also more clear.

BOOM: Look how boom volume exploded from near nothing as it started it's run. Boom had a couple nasty pullbacks, and I bet there is a long list of traders that are upset they got shaken out on those pullbacks.
TIE: They had a little more volume before the increase, but nonetheless there was an large increase each time it has taken a step forward.
HANS: HANS had a little mini run and then the volume poured in much like SUF did from 3-5 then volume poured in. HANS had some good shakeouts early too, but once the story was known, it was pretty smooth sailing.
Here is a daily chart of HANS from the period of the initial breakout.
Which brings us to my SUF charts. Here is the weekly chart which shows a spectacular jump in volume as it more then doubles in price. Look at how volume started creeping in before the move. Someone knew something. Is this a pump and dump... I would think not as the amount of the float has been traded many times over.
Here is my daily chart. This has been trending up at just a little over 45 degrees which is not too steep. Are we due a pullback, probably. I have support near 15 and I doubt we will drop below that in any pullback, however.. we could pullback all the way to 11ish or we could blow right through 20 and pullback later. We could also consolidate sideways. I for one, will wait for the patterns to develop and make my decisions based on the charts and not on hype and fear.
I apologize for this long winded post, but I think a lot of traders get shaken out without trying to determine what they are really trying to accomplish with a certain trade. If a trader is playing for a quick swing, then they should of sold SUF already, or at least taken partial profits. I will disclose that I have already sold my "traders" and will hold my core for the time being. If we get a dip, then I will be ready. If we continue to move up, thenI am happy with my position. I will only sell out of SUF if I see a complete erosion of the chart. Good Luck,

DT


PS. Other stocks that are showing similar Volume patterns are MMUS, and possibly DIET, and HAUP. There are others but I think MMUS shows the most similarity as it has sustained the increased volume for 13 weeks now. If anyone has similar stocks, feel free to leave a comment.