Watch List

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/23/2006 10:15:00 PM | 2 comments »

Not much to say about market action today, other then smallcaps showed a little strength. GOOG was up afterhours on news that they are gonna be added to SP500. It will be interesting to see how Nasdaq performs tomorrow. Here are some charts that will be on my watch list.

NGPS chart is looking very pretty. Looks like triangle is broken.

I am watching MNST to see if it will pullback to trendline. I am waiting for the next higher high.
AKS looks like it is ready to move here.
GG had a nice move off the 50sma and is still the healthiest of the gold stocks. Most gold stocks were nicely today despite gold finishing a little lower.
Silver is the hot metal, and SLW is still my favorite play in the sector.
PAL is another metals play in the less followed paladium market.
PSYS gave back yesterdays gain and failed at the 50sma.
PWR may be a little extended, but I will be watching it for a move.
CLB is back for a test of the trendline.
EGY has held up reasonably well in the energy pullback, and looks like it will challenge the trendline.
AEOS found support and may be good for a quick trade.
Here is an updated chart on HD. I mentioned a couple days ago that HD should break resistance and it has on decent volume.
I'm hoping for a shot at PNRA near the trendline.

Good Luck,

DT

IBD 100 Stocks

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/22/2006 09:42:00 PM | 3 comments »

Here are a few stocks in the IBD 100 that are near their breakout areas.

CAT tested support and bounced higher today.
CHE looks like it wants to hold above the previous channel.
HITT is pretty volatile but has held above my previous resistance line. Still some overhead supply though.
ERS has been getting good support near the breakout area.
WCC pulled back and looks like it may get a bounce here.
PTRY has been trading a very tight range the past few weeks. Starting to move up a little, so I am keeping an eye on it.
DRQ is technically a former IBD 100 stock and the chart is not as healthy as the ones above. Still, it looks like it may break out of this contracting triangle.

Thats it for tonight as I am celebrating my birthday. Good Luck,

DT

Top Reversal day

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/21/2006 09:11:00 PM | 0 comments »

All the indices reversed from breakout moves after Nasdaq couldn't follow through. While this may not be the nail in the coffin, it looks like there will be some near term weakness or nervousness. Small caps have been hammered in the past two pullbacks, so I have trimmed back substantially on my swing holdings. It's much easier to jump on a breakout rally then to try and salvage gains in a sharp pullback. Most of my money was made on the short side today, save for a Home Depot long trade and I feel that the easier money may be on the short side the next few days. If still like some longs, specifically in the retail sector. HD cleared resistance today, but closed back in their base. There are some interesting retail charts below that could move nicely if HD or WMT can spark a retail rally.

Here is my Russell Index chart. Not much to say that the chart doesn't show.
IWM is the ETF if you wish to play the Russell directly. Near mirror image of course.
CMC broke an ascending triangle base on very nice volume.
I try to keep an eye on stocks that have been removed from the IBD 100 for breakdowns. This is one that has fallen apart. It looks like FDG has fallen pretty far, but look at the previous pullbacks as examples that there may still be downside here.
ISIL is another IBD removal that broke down and is retesting support.
LVS is slipping under support and the 50 sma. Keep an eye for a breakdown.
RTP has a clearly defined channel here. This should be a swing trade as it is pretty hard to trade $100 plus low float stocks.

TRAD looks similar to GROW chart from last night, which worked out as a decent short. Watch for key support here.

Here is the first of the interesting retailers. Very strong move for PVH and closed at high of day in a weak market.
DBRN had a milder breakout, but closed at a new high.
TJX is another retailer that broke out of a solid base.

I still maintain that this environment is better suited for short timeframes.
Good Luck,

DT

Tech and Construction Rally?

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/20/2006 09:42:00 PM | 0 comments »

More sideways action today. I've been half expecting the markets to turn down, but there may be a chance that the Nasdaq plays catchup first. Chips are pretty oversold and some tech names are looking downright bullish. CSCO has been leading a networking run, and MSFT and IBM have looked pretty decent. There is also a chance the GOOG may be holding gap support (chart below). As always, I am waiting for the market to tell me which way to go, and I continue to keep ample cash in reserves.

There are also some contruction related charts that are looking good and basic materials continues to act well.

Let's start with HD. They are trading an expanding wedge, and there is a chance that they break it on this test of the upper trendline.

FAST broke out of a similar expanding wedge and looks like they are moving higher.
STRL had a nice move today and is currently testing gap resistance. The gap will be resistance until they can close above it.
NOIZ had a nice move today on huge volume for them. This is a pretty choppy stock so trade carefully.
RIO broke down and is testing resistance.
BOT is resolving into a deep cup and handle base. Watch for a move over the pivot point.
ERS is the number 1 stock in the IBD 100 and just broke out of an ascending triangle. They need to clear the previous high and there are indicator divergences, but this chart looks bullish.
HITT is clearing a choppy triangle base here.
NTES is another volatile stock that just cleared resistance.
TWGP is yet another choppy base that has broken out.
JOYG has been a very solid stock and just made a new 52 week high today.
GFIG may fall apart here, but keep an eye on it as it may also find support.
HELX looks like a decent low risk short opportunity.
GROW is testing major support here.
TRE looks like it broke support here.
Here is the GOOG chart. Notice the candle patterns confirming gap support and it closed almost on the 200 sma.
Should be an interesting week. Good Luck,

DT

Charts - Long and Short

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/19/2006 09:36:00 PM | 0 comments »

Lots of charts tonight. I am seeing opportunities for both longs and shorts, but as I ave been doing, I am keeping my trades on a short leash until I feel comfortable with the market direction.

PWEI coming back for another test of resistance.
PEIX could break out of this triangle soon.
QCOM looks very good here.
MNST hit a new 52 week high and closed above resistance.
WMT looks like it has broken the downtrend here. While I don't normally trade big caps, it makes sense to watch a stock that can move the entire sector. I would expect a little pullback off the 200sma and a retest of support.
CHE looks like it broke out of the recent channel.
PLAY is struggling here and 50 has curved down noticably.
CAT looks pretty healthy.
CRDN looks like it may fail to hold support here. Watch for the break first.

CTRN may trade down this channel.
I will be watching DRIV to see if it can take out formidable resistance. Pretty volatile moves on this stock over the past year.
EXP may be breaking out here.
CCJ is looking a little weak. Keep an eye for a failure at the 50sma.

CLDN is another possible short, although there is a chance it get some support around here.
GOL took a pretty good hit on high volume and is struggling. Looks like it will pull back and test support again.
GYMB is trying to break out here.
PETS has had a hard time breaking out of this tight range, but may of done it.
TSU is one I am keeping an eye on for this week.
ARD broke out of the downtrend and then tested support. Looks like it may get a move up here.
DNA had a pretty strong move friday and stopped right at 200. Watch to see if it can break out.
MTXX is trading near the bottom of a triangle here. Watch for a move either way.
TTI has been holding above it's recent break of consolidation and should be poised to move higher.

By the way, I posted a market update earlier tonight (see below).
Good Luck,

DT