These are the kind of days where you should really just shut it down and go do something outside. Not much to say other then the pullback was very light and didn't break any support. Tomorrow is expirations day and as such I won't be actively trading. I am posting just a few charts tonight.
SHFL is what I took for the Squawk Box contest today and I did initiate a position as well. Had a new high close on the year today and may take out the high tomorrow.
Is there a case for CMED bottoming out here? Cmed broke out of the downtrend a few weeks ago and has been riding down the topside of the trendline since then. Yesterday it had a narrow range bar after a high volume "almost hammer", then today it broke higher, although on weak volume. If it is the bottom then I would expect a 38.2% retrace to 30's.
Here is the weekly chart showing possible support where it is getting the bounce.
A reader requested CKCM so I am posting my yearly chart for it. CKCM is pretty close to the lower end of a huge triangle. It had a failed breakout earlier this year and could make another run at it at some point. I don't play earnings so at this point it looks to me like the safest play is to wait for something to develop.
Good Luck and have a good weekend,
DT
While some are waiting for confirmation from the Nasdaq and Dow, Russell confirmed this rally today. Russell is the leading index and they made multi year highs today. The Nasdaq closed near a new high as well. The next two days may get tricky with options expiration on Friday, but it appears that the path of least resistance remains up. Things were mixed in the after hours session today as AAPL and CTXS were up but EBAY and RMBS were down.
In looking at the Nasdaq chart a couple nights ago, I came up with a target of 2475.9 based on a triangle breakout. This would take it to the upper trendline on my chart. If this breakout holds, I expect semiconductors to lead the way. Chips are looking much like Energy stocks did a month and a half ago.
Here is a weekly chart of the Russell. Notice it broke out of the rising wedge and successfully tested the breakout area.
Here is a chart if the $sox. I expect a test of the trendline and then maybe some consolidation. But bottom line is that if Nasdaq rallies then Sox will make a new high.
NSM is a semi with my favorite pattern. Nice volume on the break of the triangle.
TRID stopped short of a breakout, but it was a strong move from the bottom of the triangle.
NFLX looks like they are breaking out of a very large triangle. If it follows through it could be an explosive move.
AKAM looks like they will make a new 52 week high here. Volume came on today after declining during the consolidation.
Thats it for tonight as I already have tons of charts I am watching this week.
Good Luck,
DT
That was a heck of rally today. I showed the Dow and Nas bouncing off support last night, but I had no idea the bounce would be this strong.
Here is an updated Nasdaq chart.
And Dow Chart.
Both appear to have marked a bottom. My only concern with the near term is that now everyone expects a rally and the markets don't like when everyone is on the same page. However, todays rally was too strong to dismiss as any type of headfake IMO.
It was nice to see semiconductors lead the rally today and I believe if this rally has legs then we will see some profits being taken out of commodities and being put to work in the semiconductors.
With that in mind, here is a chart of MRVL. They have had a healthy correction and appear to have found support and may be breaking the downtrend line.
POWI is another chip stock that appears to be breaking a downtrend.
SNDK looks to be breaking out of a loose reverse head and shoulders pattern.
NETL hit a new 52 week high clearing lots of resistance.
XRTX dipped into the gap and may of filled all it's gonna fill.
IIP is consolidating into another bull flag.
CBG is one of those stocks in a nice boring uptrend. Looks like it is starting another leg up.
NSC may clear it's current base here.
SCHK appears to have cleared a triangle base.
Good Luck,
DT
Well the week started off with a sharp reversal down and then a decent close. Things will undoubtedly get even more fun with a ton of earnings on the slate and options expiration to boot. I am only posting a few charts as I am still watching most of the charts I posted last night. With the day being so negative, 9 of the 11 longs I posted last night managed to close positive, so if the markets get any traction, those would be a good place to start.
Here is an updated Nasdaq chart. It has been respecting the dotted trendline as support, so watch out if it breaks under it.
DJIA bounced off the rising trendline today. Keep an eye on that trendline.
IBCA is a very thinly traded stock with a nice chart pattern.
ITRI had a nice move today and cleared all resistance.
MVK also cleared resistance and closed very strongly today.
I am watching some possible short setups such as ESRX and FFIV, but I also get some with my real time scans. Here is a sample of some of the shorts that came up today. Most of these look like they will fall further.
Shorts that triggered today
I took OSIP and RIMM today out of that list and covered for profits.
Good Luck tomorrow.
DT
I have mostly IBD 100 charts tonight. I am mostly posting charts of stocks that are near a valid entry point with a decent risk to reward ratio. This is not the appropriate time to chase stocks and may not even be an appropriate time to enter swings to the long side. However, there is always a chance that the markets continue to go up and the only way to take advantage of it is to put some trades on that won't hurt you if they fail. I haven't entered any swing shorts of more then 2 days lately and probably won't until the indices break decisively below the 50 smas. I have been using trade ideas for short setups which is why you haven't seen too many short charts lately. If anyone is really interested in the short setups, let me know and I will include more.
CLDN failed the breakout but has been declining on very light volume. Also, there has been strong support in the 24's illustrated by the long tails three days in a row.
CWTR has been trading a tight flag formation while the rest of the retailers have been pulling back. When the sector is ready, it looks like CWTR will lead.
FCFS has been a little sloppy, but remain close to a 52 week high.
GWR has held the breakout area and offers a pretty good risk reward setup here.
OVTI has come back to test support and has a lot of upside room left.
MFLX had a pretty steep loss followed by a weak bear pennant, however, it is very oversold and coming to support.
THO is coming back for a retest of the triangle breakout. Another solid risk/reward play.
WAB may come back to test the breakout and the target is near 39.
CHK is the first non IBD100 stock and doesn't really look like it's headed anywhere quick. BUT, it is worth watching as CHK has been consolidating a huge runup for the past 6 months and if natural gas finally gets a bounce, CHK will be a great ride.
Another triangle retest. MORN looks very solid here.
And another triangle retest. I'm sure everyone is getting the idea that I love ascending triangle bases.
That's it for tonight. I also posted five charts of my current holdings on my Squawk contest blog. Be sure to check them out.
Good Luck,
DT




