Solid Day

Posted by downtowntrader | 6/01/2006 11:02:00 PM | 1 comments »

Although volume was lower it was nice to see the Nasdaq leading today. That is a clue that bears watching as the Nasdaq is the most oversold index and testing the lower end of a long term channel. We'll see what transpires tomorrow after the jobs report, and whether volume picks up.

BOOM was mentioned on Madmoney today and may be highlighted on tomorrow's show depending on whether viewers select them as the "orphan" stock. Looks strange when I type it, but you can read the details here.
I saw some strength in Internet related stocks today and the following three stocks have potential for outsized gains.

TZOO has started to turn back up and if they can gain some momentum the huge short position could be squeezed.
BIDU will have a nice move if it can clear obvious resistance.
PCLN held up as the market pulled back and look like they are starting to pick up steam.

Keep in mind that the markets are still pretty skittish so it's not time to be fully margined long, however, it is looking like there will be a little more upside here.

Good Luck,

DT

Charts of some IBD 100 stocks

Posted by downtowntrader | 5/31/2006 11:20:00 PM | 0 comments »

Small Caps are starting to firm up a little and if we are forming a near term bottom then IBD stocks may be a good place to be. With that in mind here are a few charts of IBD100 stocks that are near decent risk reward buy points.

ANDE actually looks more like a short if it can't break the internal trendline here, but if it can clear it then it should test the recent high.

CLB may be hammering out a bottom here.
DXPE is looking ready to move higher. Wait for the move out of the pennant.
EXPD continues to hold gap support.
LIFC cleared the pennant and is backing up to retest support.
DRIV may be done here. I am stopping short of calling it toast because it held the red trendline which should serve as support. However, the price action is pretty bearish.
GYMB is breaking out of a base here, but may not of consolidated enough for the breakout to hold.
SAFT has worked it's way back to it's breakout area and may find support here.
TNB pulled back to a major trendline and looks like it found support there.
Also I had problems with my VCBI chart, but check it out here.


Good Luck,

DT

Rally Dead?

Posted by downtowntrader | 5/30/2006 09:53:00 PM | 0 comments »

Today was a pretty negative day with no signs of any hope for Bulls. There was no news to spark the sell off no matter how the media spins it. So the indices are quickly back in a precarious situation appearing like they will test recent lows. This is why it is dangerous to try and pick bottoms as there are all type of shakeouts and weakness as trapped longs and eager shorts wage their battles. Looking at the indices there are still signs of a possible bottom and I wouldn't be surprised with a gap down and capitulation as early as tomorrow. I also won't rule out a complete breakdown however, especially with all the bearish engulfing candles today.

Here is an updated $COMPQ chart showing it at a major trendline. The Nasdaq is about as weak as it has been in over a year. Will it try and reclaim leadership, or is this the beginning of serious problems.
Here is the $SPX daily chart. It still has plenty of room to hit the bottom of the channel, but I wasn't expecting a touch of the channel till it cleared 1245ish. We'll see how it resolves.
I've mentioned how I have a custom scan setup in trade ideas for stocks breaking down. Here is a Candleglance of a few that turned up today.

10 Possible Shorts

I set up this scan to look for stocks making a new 8 day low, but paying special attention to where in the yearly range the stock was. This scan looks for stocks that have already topped vs trying to pick out the tops themselves.

I am posting a link below with the precise setting I have been using. It will only work for suscribers, so if you have suscribed recently, feel free to test it out. I would appreciate some feedback from those who try it out.

To test it out, Right click the link below and select copy link location. Then right click on an open Trade-Ideas window and select collaborate. Then paste the link into the collaborate field.

Link

Click OK, and you're done.

While I think shorting here may be dangerous, those thinking about using this scan can start monitoring since we are seeing a lot of weakness even on up days.

Good Luck,

DT

Charts

Posted by downtowntrader | 5/29/2006 09:29:00 PM | 0 comments »

It is still too early to tell how much of a bounce we will get in the indices, but it definitely looks like "bounce" is the most we will get. If this was the first leg of a correction, then the next leg should provide some nice shorts. There are still some long plays worth considering for short term traders though since the indices are just climbing out of oversold levels. The ideal situation would have the indices attempting a rally over the next week or so, and then rolling over. However, I think most people are expecting this type of scenario and the markets have a way of punishing the herd.

Here are a few interesting charts.

BLK looks like it will continue to correct. The question is does it hit the upper trendline or does it fail here at the twenty day moving average.



CLB may be getting support at the fifty SMA and trendline.

MED has been showing strength and made a new 52 week high Friday.
GDI looks like it will make a run at the upper trendline near 82.
HITT pulled back to double support at the previous breakout area and the ascending trendline. They had a nice move Friday confirming support.
IBCA made a push to the top of an ascending triangle and pulled back a little. They still look like they cleared the line though. While there is still some resistance to contend with, most indicators are confirming this move.
BUD is one of the short plays that came up on a trade ideas scan I was messing around with. While BUD actually looks like it will be a pretty good performer in the intermediate term, it looks like it is headed lower in the short term. Here is a chart of BUD breaking flag support and possible support areas below.
Here is the weekly chart showing some pretty stiff resistance at 47. Notice the long wicks on the previous three weekly candles.
STLD has more resistance above then support below. I am watching to see if it breaks lower here or if it will attempt to make a push to the upper dotted red trendline.
MNST is one I am watching to see if it makes it up to previous support in the coming days. The idea is to wait for it to breakdown near resistance.
LNCR made a new 52 week low Friday and looks like it may really break down here. This also looks good on a weekly chart showing the last few years.

Good Luck,


DT