The markets have been rising and you have to wonder if there is a big game of musical chairs going on. The big question is when will the music stop and who will have chairs to sit on. The markets didn't do much today but they closed weakly. With tomorrow being a shortened day and before the Labor Day weekend, expect volume to be extremely low. There is a chance that the downtrend will resume next week when volume returns, so I am starting to look at possibilities for shorts while maintaining a near term bullish bias.
TXU looks ready to break out here so keep an eye on it tomorrow.
TWGP cleared resistance but had a weak day today. Volume did tick up on the breakout day though.
CCJ came back to clear the triangle. It may follow through tomorrow.
It looks like HAL will begin to accelerate to the downside here.
HLX looks like it may fall out of this little wedge and the bigger triangle like pattern as well. There is still a small chance it breaks higher so be careful with it.
LVS may be having a hard time with resistance here and may be forming a larger head and shoulders top.
AL is another basic materials stock that may be forming a large topping pattern. It still has some room before completing the head and shoulders top.
UARM may be resuming the downtrend here.
ANDE may get a nice bounce after clearing the downtrendline. This can be classified as either a descending triangle breakout or reverse head and shoulders. Both yield a nice target.
ODFL had a nice bounce to resistance and may break down here.
TS is testing a long term trendline here.
Not sure what got into ORB today but they had a strong rush in volume mid day. Keep an eye on resistance above.
The environment is getting more dangerous and while things are still looking bullish, it makes sense to protect any profits made from recent trades. Be careful out there and adhere to your exit strategies.
Good Luck,
DT
Being that I just got home there won't be an update tonight. Good Luck tomorrow,
DT
The markets closed very strongly today as Bulls bought the dip. I've been waiting for confirmation from the Russell and it looks like it is close to giving it. Technically, it is still at resistance but RSI is confirming the move. It looks like small caps may be back in the near term.
Here is a zoomed in version of my nasdaq composite chart showing a bull flag breakout. The target for this move takes it up for a retest of the broken trendline.
As I suspected yesterday there were some strong moves in tech stocks especially late in the day. Keep an eye on the charts I mentioned last night as well as NVDA, FFIV, DRIV, VRSN, MRVL, AMD, etc. One thing I will add tonight, if I was holding a lame stock right now, I would take advantage of whatever move we get here to unload it. I still feel that the markets are headed much lower at some point in the near future and that we are going to be given some great entries for shorts when this rally is over.
Good Luck,
DT
The markets had a bullish move today although on typical light summer volume. I am seeing some bullish tech charts tonight which may give a clue that the Nasdaq is ready to lead the next few days. Oil and Commodities pulled back which may of helped.
Here is a chart of Oil. I highlighted an evening star on my candle chart a while back as a warning of a trend reversal and it has held up so far. Here is an OHLC bar chart showing a possible test with a long term trendline.
AKAM continues to look bullish and had a decent day today.
BWNG may be ready to break out of this flag consolidation.
RACK had a nice move today and stopped at the 38.2% retrace. It looks like it will head further up into the gap.
QCOM resembles the BWNG chart above and it looks like there is plenty of room left to the upside without damaging the overall bearish outlook.
BEAS is a little overbought, but looks like it will make a push to the red trendline.
BRCM also resembles QCOM and BWNG. It looks like it will breakout of a bull pennant and make a push to the 200sma.
CXW is holding above the flag breakout but indicators are starting to get negative.
I had ORB on my watchlist and just flat out missed the bounce today. This is a strong candle and looks like it is the beginning of a breakout.
MYOG is yet another Flag after downtrend breakout chart. Most of these look like they will make one more push up.
GOL held up after almost reversing the downtrend breakout. At this point it looks like they will travel up the channel which may turn out to be a large bear flag.
A couple of links worth checking out tonight follow:
- Nice roundup of stockcharts.com public charts by Fallond.
- Tim Wood on Transports failure to confirm rally.
- Chart of housing runup courtesy of Trader Tim.
Good Luck tomorrow,
DT
I have two fantasy football drafts / auctions today so I am posting my update early. I won't go into too much details as I am short of time. While the past weeks consolidation can be viewed as bullish the hourly charts on the indices are showing the possibility that we pull back a little more before anything else happens.
The transports have been weakening and if this hurricane is gonna push oil higher over the next week, then transports may weaken further.
Here is ODFL possibly breaking the neckline of a head and shoulders top.
XPRSA is also showing a possible break of a trendline.
CCJ failed to break the line and may be headed to the 200sma.
ALJ is looking like it will breakout.
INFA came back to test the break out area and may be ready to follow through.
I've been looking for NTRI to breakdown and instead it is forming a potentially bullish reverse head and shoulders. If it completes the pattern it may only mean a test of the earnings gap down.
TXU looks ready to move as it is being squeezed by two trendlines.
TWGP looks ready to explode to either side. Volume has been contracting and if I showed the bollinger bands I'm sure they would be really tight.
NITE may bounce here off the 20 sma or travel down to the rising trendline.
PVA has held near the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders base. It tried to rally Friday and may of failed. Watch to see which way it follows through.
LMS may of broken down here.
ICLR may get a fast move higher as it extends the bull flag breakout.
CTSH is giving a lot of warnings that a reversal may be imminent. Two really bearish candles followed by a shooting star on the last three breakout attempts should put bulls on edge. If it can clear this mess then a really nice move might be in store.
Keep an eye on ALY over the next week to see if it attempts to breakout over resistance.
BOOM's action has been healthy the past three days and it may be headed back to the top of the rising channel.
Good Luck,
DT
