Response to Question

Posted by downtowntrader | 11/03/2006 07:45:00 PM | 0 comments »

Hunting R had a good question in the comments section and I didn't want to bury the answer in there.

Hunting R said...

I was looking over your report that StockTickr put out on your trades last month. On there you have a loss of -4R. I my world of trading I do everything not to ever let a loss get pass the 1R level - that the whole point of R. Was this loss due to holding a swing trade through earnings, or was it on a day trade and if so what happened?
Thanks - HuntingR



hunting r,
I am with you on trying to not let trades get past 1r. In fact, i only had 3 trades over a 1.3r loss since I started tracking r's. Sometimes you get slippage or gaps against you and they throw off the r's. As far as the ODFL trade, it's a case where the R loss doesn't show the whole story. Here is a chart of the trade:



I took the trade at less then half my normal R value because it was already pushing the lower bollinger band and therefore had a high risk of failure. Also, I had a small value for the R, comparable to most daytrades. The real problem was that I messed up my alert for the stop loss. I inadvertently set a stop for a long position instead of a short, and it didn't trigger. When I noticed, it was already above my stop and I exited the best I could. It looked bad, but the end result was closer to about 2 times my normal R. The sad part is that it fell apart later and I missed it.

You bring up a good point though about R losses. Swing traders are going to encounter gaps that will result in R losses greater then expected, so it's very important to keep up with earnings and to look at a stocks trading patterns. For instance, If I take a position in something that gaps all the time, I will reduce my typical R to protect against nasty surprises. I also stay away from holding for earnings.

Thanks for the comment.


DT

Keeping a Trading Journal

Posted by downtowntrader | 11/02/2006 02:24:00 PM | 5 comments »

Keeping a journal is one of the most effective ways to get better at trading, period. Many beginning traders, and I would suspect, failing traders, think that keeping a journal is just a hassle, but it is the most effective learning tool I have ever used. It's nice to learn about indicators and trading methods, but they are useless if you have no way of knowing how well they have worked for you. Knowing what is working or more importantly, being able to go back objectively and see what is not working is extremely valuable.

Oliver Velez (founder of Pristine.com) had an interesting way of tackling trading problems. Identify a weakness in your methodology, and resolve to only fix that weakness. Focus on not making that specific mistake for as many trades as it takes until it is weeded out of your system. Then, tackle the next. None of this is possible without an objective way of reviewing your trades to identify those weaknesses. Keeping a journal is one of the key ingredients of a comprehensive trading plan. I don't remember where I read this quote, but the gist of it was, that the author had NEVER met a great trader who wasn't obsessed with keeping score and tracking their statistics. Regardless of the style of trading, each had an obsession with tracking their results.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger published a link to an excerpt of his new book, Enhancing Trader Performance a couple days ago. In it, he tries to find the common factors in "expert performers" across a multitude of fields. One of the concepts mentioned is "deliberate practice". I am familiar with this concept from my experience in sports, and the basic idea is that practice is more effective when a specific goal is targeted in a deliberate manner. Go to a golf range and watch how most people just mindlessly swing away. The effective way to practice, would be to practice with a specific goal in mind, such as fading the ball into a specific spot with your 4 iron, and then practicing that shot until you get it right. Then practice it some more. The key is to consistently receive feedback and adjust technique. Once you are comfortable with the technique, you ingrain it to memory. In trading, systematically reviewing your trades, and then modifying your technique is one form of deliberate practice. But you need to have a way of reviewing your trades.

I recently started using Stocktickr's journal service to keep track of my trades. I used to keep a complicated and convoluted spreadsheet for my trades, but I found myself constantly neglecting the entering of my trades, and once the backlog was too much, I would just not enter them. Another problem was that once I got around to entering the trades, I couldn't remember much of the detail surrounding the trades. I tried downloading my trades and keeping them on a spreadsheet, but matching lots and then keeping track was too much of a hassle, so I neglected it as well. I also tried to run these complicated excel bar reports and then just stopped looking at reports all together. Stocktickr has worked out great so far. I like having an interface where I can just enter the details and click submit. Stocktickr also allows you to assign tags to your trades and then run reports against the tags.

It also tracks R performance. For those that have missed the raging debate about the value of R, R is basically a concept where R = initial risk for a trade. For instance, if you risk $100 on a trade then that is your R. If you close the trade for $200 then you made 2 R. R has differing value depending on how you trade or keep track of performance, but it is decent way to gauge if you are consistently making more then you risk per trade. I vary my R depending on market conditions or trading performance, but I still find R valuable. R is then combined with win/loss ratio to create an expectancy. Stocktickr keeps track of all this and allow you to chart the results for different tags. Here is a better explanation of R and expectancy. Below is a chart of my R performance for the last month and a half or so. I am at 102 trades so far, so I feel like I have a decent sample to start working off.



Looking at my trading, I am under a 50% win rate, so I better darn well win more when I'm right, then I lose when I'm wrong. Looking at my trades, I only had a few where my loss was greater then 1R or where my R was too high, so I'm not lifting stops or risking too much for the most part. The ODFL trade above was at less then half my usual R so the overall loss was not too bad. What I did notice, was strings of consecutive losses and several "cut my winners short" trades.

Tracking your stats like this helps you determine how effective your trading methodology is and where it can improve. There are three ways to improve your bottom line.
1. Be right more often: In other words, increase your win rate by either being more selective, or improving your trading plan.
2. Bet bigger: If you have a methodology that is working well, then increasing your bet with a positive expectancy will increase your bottom line.
3. Improve on efficiency (Risk/Reward): This can be simply stated as letting your winners run longer and cutting losers short more efficiently.

I am resolving to fix my consecutive loss issue first which would fall under category one. I have a tendency to get frustrated when I lose a couple trades and then take subpar setups in order to "make back my loss". So when I miss a few trades in a row, I need to be more selective and reduce my R size. I had a better month as a percentage of my account, then I did R wise, and that is attributed to betting larger R's on long positions when the Nasdaq was rallying off support. I reduced R on short positions or when markets were extended to limit risk when I was unsure of market direction. This skews my R statistics because R is not a fixed value, but I still feel there is value to tracking R.

The second component of my journal is a chart review. I keep a chart for every trade I make so that I can review my entry and exit. Here is a post on some trades I made and my review of them.


I would like to plug Dave and Richard at Stock Tickr as well. Here is how they describe what Stock Tickr is: "StockTickr is a free portfolio tracker with an important twist: all watchlists are shared among all users! There are hundreds of users sharing their watchlists right now via StockTickr."

They have been constantly improving the product by implementing several changes recently, such as enhanced reports and changes to the trading journal. There are reports tracking how you perform per day of the week, monthly performance, and performance by tag. They have also implemented scaling in to positions and will soon be implementing the scaling out portion as well. They have also been open to suggestions from users in an effort to keep improving the product. While there are many ways of keeping a journal, I highly recommend the journal portion of stocktickr's service.

Hopefully I haven't rambled too much, but the key point I'm driving at here is that keeping a journal has been one of the most helpful things to my trading.


Good Luck,

DT

No Update tonight

Posted by downtowntrader | 11/01/2006 06:32:00 PM | 0 comments »

I will be at a birthday party tonight so there won't be an update.




DT

Happy Halloween

Posted by downtowntrader | 10/31/2006 09:55:00 PM | 0 comments »

The indices continued their pause today but have resisted falling apart. The indicators are falling from overbought readings and a top may be forming. There is still a pretty good chance we push higher though, even if it is short lived, so patience is key. Precious metals are overbought now, and are in need of a rest. It is looking like some energy stocks may be getting ready to move, so keep an eye on the sector. Here are a few charts to watch.

ALTR is looking like a pretty good value here as it tries to turn up.
ADBE formed a hammer at the 20sma and the rising trendline. If the nasdaq makes a run, ADBE should breakout to new highs.
ANDE looks like it started to break down here. Keep an eye on the 20sma for signs of support.
HP cleared the downtrend and is making the first pullback to the 20sma. It should make a higher pivot high if it turns up here.

Thats it for tonight.

Good Luck,

DT

Posted by downtowntrader | 10/30/2006 10:26:00 PM | 3 comments »

The indices ended marginally higher today holding support after a weak opening. They pulled back late in the day, so there is still much in the air right now. The markets have been in need of a breather and are still above the 20sma's, so a top or reversal is still to early to confirm. Here are a few charts to watch in the coming days.

Rambus Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:RMBS)
Semiconductors were strong today and if they are to resume a leadership role then RMBS may break out of this trading range.

Perficient, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:PRFT)
PRFT is trading a tight little triangle and may be offering a nice place to enter the trend.


Energizer Holdings, Inc. (Public, NYSE:ENR)
ENR is another strongly trending stock and may be finding support near the 20sma.

Ansoft Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ANST)
ANST is still within a pennant consolidation and may be offering a decent entry for a long position.

IHS Inc. (Public, NYSE:IHS)
IHS is finding support near the 20sma and has held above the larger ascending triangle base it cleared a few weeks ago.


VAALCO Energy, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EGY)
EGY is in the process of consolidating the recent downtrend breakout and may be getting close to moving higher.

Panera Bread Company (Public, NASDAQ:PNRA)
PNRA tagged the lower band today and may get a technical bounce here. Usually, a stock comes back to tag the band a second time within a few sessions, but a nimble trader can get a decent move off the first bounce.

Foundry Networks, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:FDRY)
FDRY is also hanging on to the lower band and formed a hammer today. it looks like it will make a run to the 20sma.

Cameco Corporation (USA) (Public, NYSE:CCJ)
CCJ is one of the few shorts that look enticing to me here. It looks like it may come back to test the low 30's.

Good Luck,


DT

No Update Tonight

Posted by downtowntrader | 10/29/2006 05:35:00 PM | 0 comments »

There will not be a post tonight. Check back tomorrow for the weekly watchlist.

DT