I would like to thank everyone who takes the time to visit my blog and hopefully I have helped or at least entertained each of you. I'm not sure how often if at all I will be posting next week as I will be taking some time off.

I wish all of you a Happy Holiday Season and a prosperous New Year.

Stay Safe.




DT

I must of clicked on the wrong button last night as my post was never published. I went ahead and published it today. More of the same today as the indices tried to rally, rolled over, tried to rally, and rolled over. Not much to add today so I will call it a night.

Not sure how many readers play fantasy football, so if you're not interested in it, please stop reading here.







So, I made it to the superbowl in my keeper salary cap league and I'm pretty happy with my season. The only issue is I am facing goliath in the superbowl. This is about as good a team as I've seen in a Fantasy league where all the owners know what their are doing, except for one owner who shall remain nameless. You know who you are. Scoring is simliar to a yardage / performance league. So this is the team I am facing:

Peyton Manning
Larry Johnson
Brian Westbrook
Willie Parker
Steve Smith
Hines Ward
Robbie Gould
Pittsburgh D / Special Teams

my team is as follows

Eli Manning
Steven Jackson
Reggie Bush (over Warrick Dunn)
Marion Barber
Chad Johnson
Reggie Brown (unless Joe Horn is healthy)
Matt Stover
Baltimore

I think I have a pretty decent lineup but I am overmatched. Hopefully Baltimore holds his Pitt players down and I get a few lucky TD's. Good Luck to any of my readers that made it to the final game as well.


DT

I don't have much to add today so I will keep it short. While large caps are holding up quite well, the Nasdaq and Russell are struggling to regain their 20day sma's. What I found interesting today is how the $SOX held up while the rest of techs rolled over.

Here is a chart of the $SOX. It is still in decent shape holding over the 200sma.
The reason I pay attention to the $sox is because tech tends to lead the market both to the upside and downside. The semiconductors tend to lead the tech stocks for several reasons. Now, while the $sox held up in the green today, it too is struggling to hold it's 20sma. Whichever way the $sox breaks next will likely be the way the markets move.

Thats it for tonight.

Good Luck,

DT

The chop fest continued today with a strong gap lower and move higher throughout the day. Oil and Gold are all over the place with strong rebounds following the sharp declines from the prior day. Tomorrow should be interesting with Oil Inventories due at 10:00am. Here is a look at the 60 minute QQQQ chart I've been following. It took out the rising trendline with a gap and fought it's way back to it by the end of the day. It pulled back off at the end of the day leaving a shooting star type candle. It will be interesting to see if Bulls can reclaim the trendline or if more weakness is in store.
Here are a few charts that may be decent buys if the markets end up turning around.

HAR is trading very narrow range candles and is oversold at this point. It is still looking quite bullish overall.
PYX has held up very well throughout December. It should be making some sort of move soon.
CROX has pulled back to support and could find support in this area.
LQDT is trading a loose bull pennant and is over the breakout area from the previous base. It could be finding traction here.


Good Luck,

DT

While todays move lower doesn't look too bad when you look at the indices and couple it with lower volume, there was a good bit of damage done under the hood. Look at market leaders like AAPL and GOOG. AAPL looks like it is being distributed and GOOG had a pretty sharp drop today. Also, small caps were hit pretty hard. I'm not sure if a top is in or not, but there are plenty of signs pointing to a top being near.


Here is a 60 minute chart of the Q's. It paused in the area of the triangle it broke out of and on the lower bollinger band. It may find some traction here the next couple of days, but if it fails here, then tech stocks may be in for a rough ride.

The past two weeks have been hard on me and I imagine on swing traders in general. Looking at the chart above, it makes sense as the indices can't get any traction going. Commodities aren't doing any better, jerking back and forth. I had my worst day in several months today coming close to the point where I need to shut down trading for the month. The next few days should be very enlightening.

Good Luck,


DT

There are only two trading weeks left for the year and volume should be relatively light. We may see a light volume rally as the window dressing season begins. The deceptive practice of some mutual funds, in which recently weak stocks are sold and recently strong stocks are bought just before the fund's holdings are made public, in order to give the appearance that they've been holding good stocks all along. Window dressing is where mutual funds pick up shares of the years winners so that they can report them on their year end statement. Also, although not followed as widely, there is some dumping of the years under performers as some funds don't want to show how they held on to some losers. Keep an eye on this years winners such as GOOG, AKAM, NVDA and BID for runs up and careful of this years losers such as AMD for selling off. Here are a few charts that are on my watchlist.

Immucor, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:BLUD)
BLUD is pulling back to the breakout area and 9 ema.


salesforce.com, inc. (Public, NYSE:CRM)
CRM is trading into a small triangle here after increasing guidance. These are usually continuation patterns, so watch for a move to the upside.


Harman International Industries Inc./DE/ (Public, NYSE:HAR)
HAR has pulled back to the 50sma and lower band. It has yet to threaten the breakaway gap and may turn higher here.


NVE Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:NVEC)
NVEC has been pulling back on light volume and may find support at this trendline and the lower band.


Health Care Property Investors Inc. (Public, NYSE:HCP)
HCP may be forming a pennant here. It might be early, but it is worth watching. Keep an eye on volume.


eCollege.com (Public, NASDAQ:ECLG)
ECLG broke a downtrend and is now backing and filling into the breakout area. It might be ready for a nice move and a challenge of the 200sma.


WPT Enterprises, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:WPTE)
WPTE looks like it may be putting in a reverse head and shoulders type bottom here. Although the left shoulder is the same depth as the head, the psychology here is the same. It already cleared the downtrend and is refusing to drop lower then halfway down the previous base.


VAALCO Energy, Inc. (Public, NYSE:EGY)
Although EGY is looking a little weak, I can't ignore how buying the 200sma has been rewarded here recently. If my pull back a few more days, but it could bounce right here after the narrow range candle.


Cogent, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:COGT)
COGT looks like it is gonna squeeze some shorts to me. There was a climactic gap down which was reversed the next day. It has filled the gap and shorts may be getting nervous. I would be.


eFuture Information Technology Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:EFUT)
EFUT has refused to give up it's post IPO gains and is consolidating in a bull flag. This is a tough one to trade, but it can really move.

Good Luck,

DT