Managing a trade after the entry is probably the most difficult part of trading to master. The entry, initial stop, and profit target are all decided before the trade is made. Once a trade starts moving in your favor, it becomes an emotional struggle if you don't have a trailing stop strategy to protect your profits. There are several trailing stop methods and ultimately it is of utmost importance that the trail stop meshes with the profit target strategy.
A trader needs to decide on what philosophy they will adhere to for taking profits. Some traders such as Trader-X have a specific target for each trade and use the trailing stop to protect themselves in case of a reversal. Other traders such as Trader Mike prefer not to set a target and ride a trade as long as possible. The trailing stop is used to capture as much profit as possible while not letting too much get away if it reverses.
An important point to understand is that one method exits into strength, and the other exits on weakness. The trailing stop has different functions for each, but ultimately, it is there to protect profits.
Another aspect that is often overlooked, is that the trailing stop needs to match the expected duration of the trade. It doesn't make sense to target a 2-6 month trade and follow it with a trailing stop that would force you to exit prematurely.
A reader named Muaad asked about different trailing stop strategies, so I am highlighting a few methods below.
I am using PHLY to illustrate some strategies. It has a nice trend that allows several different strategies to be compared. I traded this stock recently, so the trailing stop strategy I used will be illustrated as well.
Here is a basic chart showing the trend and the recent base. The stock recently cleared this base and may be poised to move higher. However, it is short term overbought and has some divergences on RSI and MACD.
The first stop method is a tight stop I like to use for most of my swing trades. Since I am typically looking to capture only a few day move and sell into strength, I employ a very tight trailing stop that serves to protect the trade from a reversal. The basic strategy is to raise the stop to just under a strong candle that closes over the high of the previous candle. I will also raise it if I see a reversal pattern forming. I highlighted where I moved my stops on this specific trade on the chart below. As always you can click on the image to zoom in.
A second method that some traders use is to sell on a break of a rising trendline. This is certainly a viable method for certain stocks, but you need a valid trendline and the stop should be based on a close below the trendline. I use this method mostly on intraday charts. An important point to add is that usually it is best to wait for the candle to close because support areas should be thought of as zones and not specific areas. A trendline is a place where you would expect support, but price may dip below and slingshot back.
Another method for trailing stops is under a recent pivot low. The same works in reverse for shorting. Basically, a trader would keep the initial stop in place until a stock forms a higher pivot low and then confirms it by moving back higher. The trader then moves the stop under this new low, and waits for the stock to work its way higher. Keep repeating until stopped out. I normally don't use this method as it is geared towards longer term trades. While it has weaknesses, if you catch the beginning stages of a large move, then this method can capture a large part of it.
The last method I will highlight is the Chandelier exit. This is a great strategy for intermediate term trades and is flexible enough to be geared towards different types of traders. The basic premise is that a trader trails a stop based on the stocks volatility. This specific method trails a stop under the recent highest high by a multiple of the ATR (average true range). A typical value is three times the ATR. I've seen several traders such as Alexander Elder, Thomas Bulkowski and Dr. Van Tharp employ similar volatility stops.
There are several other methods such as moving average crossover, straight percentage stop, indicator based stops, etc., but I will reiterate that the most important thing is to ensure that the trailing stop strategy fit with the overall profit taking strategy. I will also vary the trailing stop method depending on overall market conditions. If the markets are overbought on intermediate and long term time frames, then I will be even more aggressive in my stops. If they are just coming off a bottom, then I may keep them a bit looser then normal.
As I mentioned before, this is one of the most difficult strategies for a trader to master. Dr. Brett Steenbarger recently posted on some of the psychology behind this subject and how he dealt with it in his own trading. I struggled with this area myself, and I ended up with a compromise that eases my emotional struggle with profit taking and allows my trade to continues moving in my favor.
When I enter a trade, I typically have a target in mind. As the stock moves in my favor, I will scale out in even portions (usually thirds or quarters) into resistance such as a previous pivot high or a moving average. This satisfies my urge to take profits, while allowing me to stay in the trade. I will trail my stop, usually with my custom trailing stop. When I am down to 1/3 to 1/4 of my original shares, I will either try to be aggressive in exiting into strength, or I will move over to a chandelier stop and let the rest ride. A lot depends on the stock and the market environment.
If you look back to the PHLY trade above, you will notice that I exited entirely. This is because I wasn't sold on this particular stock due to the divergences, and because if it pulled back, I assumed I could get another entry on it. As it stands, the stock is still below my exit, and looks like it may drift back to the 20sma. If it prints a nice pattern there, then I may re-enter.
I know I only briefly touched on these strategies, so if anyone has specific questions or comments, feel free to post them in the comments section. I would love to hear from some other traders on how they handle this topic as well.
Hope this helped some of you,
DT
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Nice piece on stop management
Best wishes,
DJF
Thank you Declan.
DT
Very informative. Thanks for all you do.
DT,
I don't currently use stops because I so often see a stock dip momentarily 5% or more only to spring back within the blink of an eye. Yet I do know that a lot of sudden dips do not spring back as readily. Is there any stop method that employes the beta value to determine the stop price?
All the Best for 2007
Scott K
DT
Does the number of days a stock is up in a row cause you to tighten your daily stops?
Also, what would you ever allow your maximum portfolio exposure to be in one stock? Thanks.
SK
DT
I'd like to point out to you the companies I know well and think are worth knowing about for strong gains.
The four below have earnings and revenue growth running double and triple digits across the board, they are; AOB, ASIA, BRLC & IMOS.
Cheers from Alaska
SK
Scott K.
You are right that stocks can dip 5% and spring back very quickly, but the stop is there to protect you for the time it doesn't spring back. It sucks to get stopped out and then watch as the stock pops back higher, but it sucks worse when a stock continues to drop lower and lower. For these types of stocks, I'll either put a stop where, in my opinion the technical pattern is broken, or use the volatility stop that I mentioned in the post. The volatility stop is unique for each stocks average true range and is designed to not get triggered on normal moves for the stock.
SK
I do tighten my stop the more days in a row it goes up since that usually means it is getting extended. Since I am playing for one leg up I am fairly aggresive with my stops.
As far as portfolio exposure, I typically risk anywhere from .5% to 1.5% of my portfolio per stock. What this means is that I calculate how much I am risking between my purchase price and hard stop price, and this needs to be around 1% of my overall portfolio. I try to not have more then 6-7% or my portfolio at risk at any given time.
Thanks for the mention of the other stocks. I will add them to one of my watchlists.
DT
Great article and very germain to some recent discussion around the blogosphere. Our use of The Odds Maker on hundreds of Trade-Ideas strategies convinces me that trailing stop losses are the biggest culprits for sub-par trades (much like Scott K observes and you point out regarding a trade's duration).
One important finding from my research is to understand your strategy's average loss and add to it the natural volatility of any stock that appears in that strategy. For example if you keep a journal and you note that most of your trades when employing a favorite mean-regression strategy produces an average win of about $0.75 and an average loss of about $0.25. When the next candidate stock appears in this strategy (e.g., AAPL) add the natural volatility (Volume Weighted Volatility) for AAPL to the average loss of the strategy to arrive at a reasonable stop loss trigger for your trade. In this example take AAPL ($0.61) + the strategy's average loss ($0.25) to get a stop loss for AAPL at $0.86). Find the natural volatility for any stock at our free research area. More on this approach was recently discussed on our blog.
DT,
Thanks for the informative post. I like the idea that it depends on one's trading strategy and timeframe. Sometimes, we want to look for the one size fits all, but I find that the principles are always the same... (e.g. to protect your profits and let them run) but the method may be different (e.g. S/R stops, Volatility stops, MA stops, etc.).
I used some of your notes and the detailed list in Van Tharp's book, "Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom" and decided which ones applied best to my swing trading strategy. I then took the most applicable ones and have began testing them out on my past trades following the price action and seeing which was the most consistent and balanced in giving the trade its natural retracements but at the same time protecting myself from eroding my profits. This has proved very helpful and though I have more testing to do, I am applying an ATR stop that fits my method well.
This reminds me of a great quote by Ralph Waldo Emerson:
"Without ambition one starts nothing. Without work one finishes nothing. The prize will not be sent to you. You have to win it. The man who knows how will always have a job. The man who also knows why will always be his boss.
As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble."
D_Tradeideas,
That is an interesting concept. I've encountered similar statistics with oddsmaker and trailing stops, but I think in the real world most traders lack the discipline to work without stops in place. It is difficult to assess in real time with real money on the line when a trade should be closed as it moves against you. Your strategy sounds interesting as it adds a unique volatility factor to each trade. I will read through your links to learn more about it.
Muaad,
Great quote. Applies perfectly to trading and life. Another factor which I feel I didn't emphasize, is that the state of the market can be a factor in what strategy you wish to employ. If the markets are in a downtrend, then it will be safer to employ a tighter stop strategy. If it is a raging bull market, then it's best to set a volatility stop that will let the trend take care of business. Hope this helps,
DT
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"the urge to take profit"... I suffer the same problem
one of the most common pieces of advice I have found is that once the position doubles the amount of the risk assumed is prudent to slash half the position. What do you think about it?
nice article, btw
Thanks for posting these strategies, however, I need more time to understand it.