Stock Chart Analysis VMW

Stock Chart Analysis VMW

VMware, Inc. (Public, NYSE:VMW)

The Case for VMW

VMW has been hit hard the past few days and while it rarely pays to catch a falling knife, there's nothing wrong with picking it up off the floor after it's been dropped. I won't wax poetic about their product in this post, although being in the IT industry, I see everyday how they are dominating their niche market. What I will talk about are some technicals and possible market psychology trends that could influence VMW.

VMW has been one of the best performers this year opening well above it's $29 IPO price and closing at $51. It then moved in a very steady trend peaking at $125.25 just 56 sessions later. It has had a very steep pullback dropping almost 50 points in just 7 sessions. It has pulled back into it's 50% Fibonacci retrace and prior consolidation area. While it's still in a freefall, this is an area that "should" hold if all is well with the company. And while it may not bounce up in a straight line, it makes sense to start watching it, because there are a few seasonal trends that may influence them. First, a lot of traders missed VMW, and have been waiting for a pullback to get in, and this is the first time VMW has made the trip to it's 50 day sma.

Second, we are starting to approach a seasonally bullish period for stocks and then there is the year end window dressing period. Window dressing is when fund managers pick up the hot stocks of the year late in the year so they can report them as holdings in their annual reports, while simultaneously dumping laggards they prefer to not brag about. I can't think of too many stocks that would be more attractive for this type of trend then VMW. So again, it's probably early, but I would be shocked if VMW wasn't back over $100 by the end of the year.


Good Trading,


Joey

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