It looks like Semiconductors will be in play tomorrow following after a positive reaction to an Intel Corporation (Nasdaq:INTC) earnings report on Tuesday evening. INTC was trading over $18 in the after hours session which will take it over a recent base it was building. The group has actually one of the best performing sectors recently, and there are a lot of lesser known semi's that have interesting charts. Here are a few that look like possible long plays going into tomorrow.
Zoran Corporation (Public, NASDAQ:ZRAN) has a great looking chart. It has been trading very cleanly lately, honoring prior resistance as support. It's also been honoring the 50-day moving average as support and it looks like it wants to test the upper range of the current channel.


Mellanox Technologies, Ltd. (Public, NASDAQ:MLNX) is another semiconductor stock that may be testing its recent trading range. MLNX has been consolidating very tightly over the past few weeks after a strong run up. It has been pretty much unaffected by the recent weakness in the markets, and it will be interesting to see if it can get going from here.


Entropic Communications, Inc. (Public, NASDAQ:ENTR) is another semi with a great looking chart. While this is a low volume stock, it is not horrendously so. The average volume is near 400,000 shares daily. ENTR is trading in a tight ascending triangle, and a breakout could come as soon as tomorrow, particularly if the semis follow through INTC's report.

Good Trading,

Joey

Watch Free Trading Videos on INO TV

Stock Chart Analysis POT
Potash Corp./Saskatchewan (USA)(Public, NYSE:POT)

Potash really fell apart on Friday, after trying to hold above the May breakout area. POT, along with many fertilizer stocks were benefiting from the reflation trade that had been occurring over the past several weeks, but that theme came to a screeching halt recently, with most commodities getting hit hard.

POT had built a promising consolidation base that looked like a large bottoming pattern from November through April. It confirmed that base, with a breakout in May that was challenging prior gap down resistance, but it stalled in that area. It then had a breakaway gap down, which never came close to even a fill attempt. While POT has shed over 35 points from its June high, it looks like it still has room for more downside. POT was attempting to hold above the prior base and May breakout area, but this struggle ended up taking the form of a small flag. It broke that flag on high volume on Friday, and it looks like probe deeper into the prior base. While this is not in a good risk reward spot for a swing trade, I am watching POT as a candidate to short on bounces. Many bulls were trapped on the failed breakout and it appears that POT will have no shortage of sellers in the $90 area.




Good Trading,

Joey

Adam Hewison just came out with an update on the oil markets and how a confluence of signals are projecting a pullback to the $59 area followed by likely support. The video is short and sweet, and as always, free to watch. Click on the image below to watch.



Good Luck,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis GLF
GulfMark Offshore, Inc.(Public, NYSE:GLF)

Oil stocks got crushed Friday, with many oil service stocks dropping over 4%. With oil down over 3%, it looks like this group may be in for a rough start to the week as well.

GLF is an interesting chart in this sector, because while it is down fairly sharply over the past few weeks, it is also very close to breaking a support level. Looking at the chart for GLF, there are a few well defined areas of interest, that clearly show levels of support and resistance. Initially in late February, GLF broke down and quickly reversed higher, forming a V bottom and setting a bear trap that caught short sellers off guard. GLF almost doubled in about a month following the new low, and then trading in a tight sideways base. It broke out of that base in June, but quickly failed the breakout, this time catching the bulls off guard.

GLF is now back in that tight base, and threatening to break lower. A breakdown from this area could easily lead to a test of the V bottom breakout near $21. While, I'm not a big fan of shorting stocks that are oversold, but I will be watching this one to see how it deals with this important level.


Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis ZBRA
Zebra Technologies Corp.(Public, NASDAQ:ZBRA)

I've been holding a small position in ZBRA for a few weeks now based on the breakout over a large base. Recently it has been consolidating tightly over the prior base, as volatility dies down. It has managed to hold tight, despite a few negative days in the market, and was one of the few stocks to remain over their 20-day moving average on the recent market weakness. This morning it received an upgrade and is gapping over the recent consolidation. While I don't advocate chasing gaps, this is a good one to watch to see how it trades on a pullback to fill the gap. I will be following it closely, and may add to my position if I see it pullback into support and then turn back higher.



Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis LNC
Lincoln National Corporation(Public, NYSE:LNC)

There is an interesting trade setting up in Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC). LNC has been very strong the past few months, along with its peers in the Life Insurance sector. It rallied close to 300% from the March low to the recent high near $20. While the rally was large in terms of percentage gained, it really looks like part of a much larger consolidation range that began last November. Notice LNC had a similar rally off the November lows, which capped a nasty bear market correction of over 80%. LNC failed to reach the high it put in in January and appears to be pulling back again.

While I am not typically a fan of shorting stocks in intermediate uptrends, this is looking like a very good setup in terms of risk versus reward. LNC is showing weakness by setting a lower high, and recently gapped lower after failing to clear the 200-day moving average. It retraced and filled the bearish gap and is starting to drift up in what looks like a small bearish wedge. A break of the bearish wedge, which also coincides with the 50-day moving average could signal a continuation of the weakness initiated by the gap down.

The reason I like the risk versus reward here, is that the target for a short trade are is much larger than what I would need to risk. On a healthy uptrend, stocks can typically retrace about 1/2 of the last leg up. This is a normal retracement that wouldn't signal a major trend change. Looking at LNC, the 50% retrace level is near $12.40. With a stop near $17.10, this leaves us with about $1 risk and a $5 reward. These are the types of setups that will payoff even with a win percentage under 50%. I'll be watching LNC for a break of this wedge, especially, if the markets continue to pullback.



Good Trading,

Joey

Watch Free Trading Videos on INO TV

Stock Chart Analysis AIPC
American Italian Pasta Company(Public, NASDAQ:AIPC)

AIPC was one of the stronger stocks in the market over the past several months, rising almost 700% from March 2008 through April 2009. It has been rising steadily over this time, forming small lateral bases, with gaps above the bases following a few weeks later. Recently, it had been forming another lateral base, but instead of clearing it, it gapped down and broke under the base. This may be an important change of character for this stock, as investors that have been used to steady gains, are now facing the prospects for a deeper correction.

Looking at the more recent price action, AIPC broke under the 50-day moving average and has been reversing at each test of the average. There is a small trendline forming over these tests, that has been a good spot for shorting opportunities. AIPC is currently back in this area, and has had three indescisive candles showing a little restraint on the part of buyers. I will be watching for a breakdown here as a possible shorting opportunity.



Good Trading,

Joey

I was featured in an interview by Damien Hoffman of Wall Street Cheat Sheet on the Top 3 Mistakes new Traders should avoid, along with Joe Donahue of upsidetrader.com. You can check out the interview here. Any comments are welcome and appreciated.

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis ULTA
Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:ULTA)

I mentioned on twitter today how I was noticing retailers at the high of day in spite of the market hitting new lows for the day. I also noticed this same behavior last week on a weak day. Usually when you see many stocks in a sector hitting highs together, it signals an institution or fund buying a basket in the group. While this wasn't enough of a reason for me to try and fight the trend day down, I decided to watch some retail names later in the afternoon. Later in the afternoon, I noticed some retailers continuing on the earlier strength, but the markets still looked ugly. In the end, many of the retailers backed off the new highs, but held up much better than the other sectors. I decided to enter into ULTA late in the day as a swing trade due to a few positives in the charts and despite the negative outlook in the general markets.

ULTA recently cleared a lateral consolidation that could also qualify as the handle in a cup and handle base formed from January through June. It cleared the base on a small uptick in volume before surging on a gap a few days later. It is now in the process of testing the breakout area and is becoming oversold as it begins the test. The 20 and 50-day moving averages are both over the 200 day moving average and sloping higher. ULTA was able to find support on the 50-day MA last Friday, and cleared that candle today. While ULTA may still have some backing and filling to do, there was enough of a chance that it would hold this area as support combined with the positive candle today, that I took the trade. With the markets threatening a deeper pullback, I will be very aggressive in taking profits if the trade works in my favor. As always, please follow up with your own due diligence if you are considering a similar trade.


Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis MRX
Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation(Public, NYSE:MRX)


MRX is posing an interesting setup here. It cleared a long base in May on a high volume gap. It has been trading sideways since the breakout, attempting to fill the gap on a few occasions. Every attempt to pullback into the gap and prior base has been met with sharp buying. Volume has been tapering off through the consolidation which is a healthy sign. The bollinger bands have also narrowed tightly, revealing the drop off in volatility. Volatility should be ready to expand soon, and the stock should have a nice move once it gets going. While Bollinger bands don't predict the direction of the breakout, there are plenty of signals on this chart hinting at an upside breakout. I'll be watching for a break above 16 to hold as a signal.



Good Trading,

Joey

Adam Hewison posted an updated look at gold on the marketclub blog today. With the recent pullback off the highs, it's a good time to look at possible support levels, and what it would take to call a trend change in gold. While gold is still above solid support levels, their proprietary trading triangle have triggered a weekly sell signal. Click on the chart to be redirected to the gold video.




Enjoy,


Joey

Stock Chart UNG

United States Natural Gas Fund, LP(Public, NYSE:UNG)

UNG has been the hottest ticket on stocktwits the past few days as volume has surged and it attempts to bottom out. While many traders are optimistic about UNG forming a bottom here, there isn't any evidence yet that says UNG is done going lower. The chart for UNG over the past year shows just about the steadiest downtrend you will ever see. I am posting a chart using multiple moving averages, which tends to paint a very clear picture of a trend. Notice how the moving averages maintained their trajectory and spacing all the way lower. They are now entering a congestion zone, as the ETF attempts to rally for the first time since the downtrend began in mid 2008. While I've been optimistic that UNG "may" form a low here, I am not commiting any capital until I see more evidence that the downtrend is over.
In order to remain objective, I will often turn to tools available in Market Club to look at how they are classifying a trend, and currently UNG is still solidly in the red. UNG is also still in a monthly sell trading triangle according to the propietary system.


I posted the chart for the United States Oil Fund LP (ETF)(Public, NYSE:USO) in order to show what may become of UNG if it can turn things around. USO was in a similar pattern to UNG for most of the past several months, correcting severely from last years record high oil peak. It also entered a congestion period with several whipsaws, until it finally began to trend in April. The moving averages are now starting to separate from the congestion zone and fan out into a smooth uptrend. This is a clear indication that the trend is rising and may persist for some time.

While I don't trade specifically around the multiple moving averages, I do use them often in order to step back and objectively assess the overall trend. In looking at UNG, near term there are some positive signals of a turn around, but the MMA chart is warning me that the coast is not clear.

Good Trading,


Joey

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Adam Hewison of INO Insider blog just posted a new video on how he uses their proprietary trading triangles to trade the CRB index and also how he uses the CRB to forecast inflationary and deflationary cycles.



In the video he discusses how the index has been around since 1957 and has accurately forecasted every inflationary and deflationary cycle since.

Here are some of his comments surrounding the video:

This is my number one indicator for large cyclic trends. You may want to watch this index carefully should you want to invest in certain stocks and commodity related markets.

Over the last half-century, this index has seen some remarkable moves both on the upside and more recently on the downside. I believe that this is the indicator that everyone should watch. If you trade stocks or futures and are interested in world trade trends, this is the indicator to track.

The tenth revision of this index renamed it the Reuters-Jefferies CRB Index (NYBOT_CR) You can easily track this indicator everyday using MarketClub.

You can learn more about this index from our Trader’s Blog
Here is a list of the 19 markets that are included in the RJ/CRB index as implemented in the 2005 revision:

Metals: aluminum, copper, gold, nickel, silver
Energies: crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, unleaded gas
Grains: corn, soybeans, wheat
Food & Fiber: cocoa, coffee, cotton, orange juice, sugar
Livestock: lean hogs, live cattle

Take a few minutes to watch this short video and see how you can benefit from this indicator. There is no fee and there is no registration required.

Enjoy the video in every success in the markets,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis ESRX

Express Scripts, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:ESRX)

ESRX is one of the stocks on my watch list for the upcoming week as it is showing some bullish signs. The chart for ESRX is an interesting one, as it highlights what can happen when one side gets caught by surprise. In this case it looks like the bears were fooled by a breakdown from a base in March. The breakdown was steep and came on rising volume which added to the legitamacy of the breakdown. After a weak bounce attempt, ESRX began to rollover in late March which is about when the bears may of been caught in a trap. ESRX bounced very sharply off the new lows, and after resting a few days gapped higher on good volume and continued the move the following day. It has since been consolidating the breakout and never came back to test that strong candle let alone the gap below it. These are bullish signs, and there could still be some trapped bears in here. The larger consolidation looks like a flag setting up, and could lead to a measured move higher if it can clear the flag. Looking more closely, ESRX is bouncing off the 20-day moving average and had huge volume on the heels of pricing a secondary at $61. This level may act as a near term floor, and could support the stock moving forward.





Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis S

Sprint Nextel Corporation(Public, NYSE:S)

Here is a look at Sprint Nextel Corporation via a reader request. S is at an interesting point here, as it has pulled back to obvious support and is oversold enough that a bounce here could be expected. S had a prior line of resistance around $4.50 that should act as support if tested. It also has a gap that hasn't been filled near $4.70 that should also act as a layer of support. Beyond these horizontal levels of importance, S is also sitting on a rising trendline that has defined the existing rally just as the slow stochastics indicator is becoming oversold. These are all signs that S could get a bounce off these levels.

However, S is also showing many signs that the current rally off the November lows is getting long in the tooth. The RSI indicator has not confirmed the recent highs with similar highs in the indicator, and the MACD histogram is even worse. It is making new lows, which implies that downside momentum is picking up speed. The $6.00 area is a key resistance level, and may not be easy to break.

In my opinion, the key levels to watch are the gap support and $6. Much depends on a traders timeframe, but breaking under the rising trendline and gap should change the trend to sideways at a minimum. A move over $6 has to be treated as bullish.


Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis KIM

Kimco Realty Corporation(Public, NYSE:KIM)

I just posted a chart to chart.ly on a cup and handle forming on Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE:VNO) and mentioned how some other REIT's are showing similar patterns. Below is a chart for Kimco Realty Corporation (NYSE:KIM) which is also showing a cup and hande base.

It's interesting how the REIT's have been heavily shorted and yet are resisting a breakdown. KIM formed a nice rounding base after a brutal 5 month decline that took it from the $30's to the $6's. More recently, it has been trading sideways, thus building the handle portion of the cup and handle base. The official neckline stands at just about where KIM closed today, so KIM could be just emerging from this base. The measured target of a breakout would take KIM near $17 and its declining 200-day moving average. Definitely worth keeping an eye on.


Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis WAT

Waters Corporation(Public, NYSE:WAT)

On nights like tonight, most of the charts I find look fantastic, if you are already in. Most are too extended for a reasonable swing entry unless you drill down to intra-day charts and aggressively trade them. It's very important to analysis your risk first, and then worry about the reward. Many stocks look like they could easily tack on more gains, but the with the rise today, a reasonable stop may be too far away. However, there are still some charts that allow for a reasonable stop and could present opportunities if the markets follow through over the next few days. One such chart I ran across tonight was WAT.

WAT cleared a pretty long and choppy base in late April on heavy volume. While the base left much to be desired, WAT has been consolidating nicely since the breakout. It never came close to retracing into the breakway gap, and has been trading in a tight and narrow range for a few weeks. It closed back above the 200-day moving average today, and has found good support on the last two trips to the $43 area. The Bollinger Bands have shrunk to the narrowest range on the chart and WAT could see a nice expansion in volatility soon. While the breakout could move in either direction, I am leaning to an upside breakout due to the bullish factors noted above.



Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis VRSN

Verisign, Inc.(Public, NASDAQ:VRSN)

Despite the fact that the almost everyone I know believes we are headed to new lows at some point, I continue to see tradeable bottoms forming. Many stocks that dropped precipitously last year, have been trading sideways for several months and are starting to break above these bases. In fact, I am seeing a lot of these patterns develop recently. Whether this will lead to an extension of the existing rally or not remains to be seen, but many of these patterns are worth paying attention to. VRSN is an example of one of these patterns.

VRSN has been building a base for the last 6 months after topping out in mid 2008. It broke out of that base in late April and has been trading in a bull flag for the past couple of weeks. This is about the average time it takes for a bull flag to develop, so I expect it to move soon. It has been using the 200-day moving average as support and slow stochastics is starting to cross over. Also notice that the MACD histogram hit a new high on the last move, which often precedes an extended move higher. While we undoubtedly remain in a primary bear market, many charts still look quite bullish and could offer great opportunities for trades.



Good Trading,

Joey

Stock Chart Analysis BGFV

Big 5 Sporting Goods Corporation(Public, NASDAQ:BGFV)

I mentioned BGFV as a stock I'm watching last night on twitter, and promised I would follow up with a chart. BGFV is a very bullish looking chart to me, and could be ready to move soon.

BGFV put in a low in November of last year, and started building a several month base after the initial bounce off the lows. It cleared the base in late April and just as it started looking tired, it had a breakaway gap on large volume in early May. It pulled back to test the gap, and is now starting to develop a bull flag. While it could still take some time to consolidate, it looks like it may find support here at the rising 20 day moving average, and breakout from here. I am watching the declining trendline here to see if BGFV can get going. A lot depends on what happens in the markets, but as long as they hold up without rolling over, then this chart has a chance.



Good Trading,

Joey

As I've been mentioning on twitter and the blog recently, I've been focused on the inflation theme for the past few weeks as Precious Metals, Energy, and Agriculture stocks have been rising on the heels of a weakening dollar. Gold is really starting to get going, and Adam Hewison, co-creator of Market Club videos has just released an update on gold. Here are some of his comments related to the video.

"The gold market sprang into life yesterday (5/20) as it closed in on $940 level which brings it back to its best levels since March 20th. We last looked at the gold market shortly after my return from New Zealand on May 5th. At that time, Gold (xauusdo) was trading at $902 you can see that all on my earlier video. Presently we are trading around $937 zone and it looks as though we can see further upside action in this market."

Click on the chart to be redirected to the video.

Market Club offers a thirty day free trial, and it really is a great service.

Good Trading,

Joey