Dow and Sector Charts

Posted by downtowntrader | 3/19/2006 08:20:00 PM | 0 comments »

The DOW is at new recovery highs and CNC keeps reminding us about it. Is this a bullish breakout? I will be the first to admit that I don't know where we are headed. However, there are some things that are troubling with this breakout and most technical analysts are noting it, regardless of what the mainstream media machine is pumping. Here is a chart of the DJIA. We have some divergences, however, price action is pretty good.
However, look at it from this view (weekly). We are sitting at the top of the channel and market internals are hinting that we may not have the strength to break out. Look at declining high lows at the three peaks. Unless Nasdaq and Russell confirm this move, I feel the DJIA breakout will fail.

Here is another weekly chart that is very interesting. The gold index looks pretty toppy and MACD just crossed over.
If you look at the daily chart, you can see the gold index struggling with the previous support trendline.
Here is the street Tracks gold ETF (gld). Looks like a corrective channel to me.
Silver still looks pretty healthy, if not a little toppy. I'm not sure how silver will react if gold takes a hit, most indicators are confirming this move and not diverging.
Here is the daily chart on the silver contract.
Here is another sector that I am finding to be more and more interesting. I've highlighted this chart recently along with some retail plays. As I was reviewing the IBD 100 this weekend, I noticed that a lot of retailers are creeping in to the list. I also have noticed over the past few weeks that energy stocks have been falling out. If you look at the retail holders chart you can see why.

Here is the retail index chart which also looks pretty bullish. Now, I not saying rush in and get your retail stocks as we may have a little pull back in some of them. But I would definitely keep an eye on the sector.
Copper also had a very nice move last week.
Here is the basic materials spdr and although I was worried about volume action on it earlier, it has broken resistance and this is one of the sectors helping the djia advance.
Stay tuned for stock specific charts later tonight.